Economics Watch

The Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) likely to cut interest rates heading into the fourth quarter, Chairman Powell says. How will the risks of growth and inflation be calibrated? Federal Reserve should proceed with caution as tariffs uncertainty persists.

133-year old Kodak (Rochester, New York) says it might have to cease operations; company to stop making payments for its retirement pension plan.

U.S. jobs outlook remains bleak largely due to policy changes regarding tariffs and immigration as well as, dare we say, artificial intelligence (AI).

In less than five years, over 1,000 printing firms in the United States could be lost due to the impact of tariffs, Smithers reports.

Welcome to Monday with Mark, our rapid recap of the previous week’s office technology news.

The good news is that while the economy remains sluggish, a recession probably is not on the near horizon. Buying decisions halted by tariffs uncertainty won’t be postponed for much longer.

Welcome to Monday with Mark, our rapid recap of the previous week’s office technology news.

As lawyers sharpen their autopens. uncertainty likely will be the force having the greatest impact on the U.S. economy, not the direct effects of the tariffs themselves.

Stagflation is an economic condition characterized by slowing economic growth, high unemployment, and rising prices (inflation) simultaneously. Favorable price and wage inflation data released in April provide some reassurance that price increases related to tariffs can be contained.

Why it is doubtful that 2025’s consumption slowdown signals a serious downshift of economics activity, plus a tariff update. Author’s note: Consumer confidence surveys do not have an especially good record when it comes to predicting what consumers will actually do.

Early 2025 inflation data have reinforced the theme that getting back to 2% inflation will take longer than generally anticipated. Henry Willmore examines the recent data and why it will be the second half of the year before the FOMC feels confident enough to resume cutting interest rates.

At its meeting in mid-December, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Federal Reserve’s policy-making committee, made some notable changes to its economic forecast for 2025 and adjusted its guidance for the path of interest rates.

The inflation-linked bond market has been pricing in an increasing likelihood of higher inflation during the past few months.

The economy is heading into the final two months of 2024 in very good shape. This has manifested in solid GDP growth, low unemployment, and moderate inflation. However, the current situation is not without risk.

Fiscal policy will also likely see significant adjustments in the coming year, the nature of which will depend upon the outcome of the election.

Another round of better-than-expected inflation data over the course of July has pushed the Federal Reserve to signal that it will cut the Fed funds rate at its next policy-making meeting on September 18.

Unexpectedly high inflation readings during the first three months of this year threw a wrench into the Federal Reserve’s plans to ease monetary policy. The data from April and May have been much more favorable. They have provided reassurance that inflation is indeed on a downward trajectory.

Investors, both domestic and international, have been extremely bullish on America so far this century. More recently, they have been bullish about a small number of companies that happen to be domiciled in one country.

The inflation data during the second half of last year were in various ways too good to be true. The unsustainably good inflation news during the second half led to excessive optimism in the markets…

One of the themes that emerged in the first half of last year about the Fed Funds Rate was the expectation that inflation and interest rates would persist at higher levels than anticipated.

In light of increasingly favorable economic data, it may seem strange to ask what could go wrong. As recent years—and history going much further back—have shown many things could go wrong.

Usually, tightening of monetary policy of the magnitude seen in the past two years results in a substantial correction in asset prices. Some ups and downs notwithstanding, this has not happened in this cycle.

Inflation has slowed considerably this year but remains significantly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Nevertheless, the Fed appears to be ready to declare victory.

GDP (Gross Domestic Product) grew a robust 4.9% in the third quarter of 2023. This included a 4.0% increase in real consumer spending and a 3.9% gain in residential investment, the first increase since the first quarter of 2021. 

The Fed’s program of tightening monetary policy has yielded an unusual development, the easing of financial conditions since last fall.