Economics

Has progress stalled, or can inflation return to the Fed’s 2% target? November’s “Economics Watch” provides insights.

The bond market delivered a resounding signal last month: The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose 60 basis points to finish September over 5.30%, its highest level since 2002.

The U.S. economy awaits as the Fed likely will raise interest rates during next week’s mid-September meeting.

Consumer spending is up but savings accounts are smaller. Could more tariffs be on the economy horizon?

Changes are afoot with new Chairman Kevin Warsh. Can he set a steady course for the economy and keep inflation close to the Fed’s official 2% target?

The AI boom faces semiconductor chip shortages and order fulfillment challenges that will have an impact on the global economy. What does helium supply from the Middle East have to do with it?

A reckoning is on the horizon for the U.S. economy, and the choices this summer will not be palatable, writes Henry Willmore.

As the U.S. warring with Iran persists, if oil prices approach $200 per barrel, our economy could be staring into the face of recession.

The rising unemployment rate suggests that labor force supply is only part of the explanation for the slowdown in job growth, reports economy expert Henry Willmore. Interestingly, demand is up for software developers.

Global economy: Canada and most of Europe are enjoying booming equity markets and currency appreciation.

In 2025, the S&P 500’s 16% rise allowed the U.S. economy to power ahead in spite of the disruptions and uncertainty created by erratic shifts in tariffs policy.

The ongoing rise in the unemployment rate is an important development within the U.S. economy but also somewhat at odds with other economic indicators and the ongoing gains in the equity markets, writes Economist Henry Willmore.

Overall investment in AI likely will exceed $400 billion in 2025, a near doubling of 2024 expenditures, which itself represented a doubling over 2023 expenditures. What does this mean for the U.S. economy?

There are signs of U.S. economic stabilization after being rocked by the erratic rollout of tariffs policy. Despite decelerated job growth, the unemployment rate has shown little change, reports the Fed.

The Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) likely to cut interest rates heading into the fourth quarter, Chairman Powell says. How will the risks of growth and inflation be calibrated? Federal Reserve should proceed with caution as tariffs uncertainty persists.

U.S. jobs outlook remains bleak largely due to policy changes regarding tariffs and immigration as well as, dare we say, artificial intelligence (AI).

The good news is that while the economy remains sluggish, a recession probably is not on the near horizon. Buying decisions halted by tariffs uncertainty won’t be postponed for much longer.

As lawyers sharpen their autopens. uncertainty likely will be the force having the greatest impact on the U.S. economy, not the direct effects of the tariffs themselves.

Stagflation is an economic condition characterized by slowing economic growth, high unemployment, and rising prices (inflation) simultaneously. Favorable price and wage inflation data released in April provide some reassurance that price increases related to tariffs can be contained.

Why it is doubtful that 2025’s consumption slowdown signals a serious downshift of economics activity, plus a tariff update. Author’s note: Consumer confidence surveys do not have an especially good record when it comes to predicting what consumers will actually do.

Early 2025 inflation data have reinforced the theme that getting back to 2% inflation will take longer than generally anticipated. Henry Willmore examines the recent data and why it will be the second half of the year before the FOMC feels confident enough to resume cutting interest rates.

Key data for the fourth quarter show 2024 finishing on a healthy note, however, tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China can potentially throw the economy off course.

At its meeting in mid-December, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Federal Reserve’s policy-making committee, made some notable changes to its economic forecast for 2025 and adjusted its guidance for the path of interest rates.

The inflation-linked bond market has been pricing in an increasing likelihood of higher inflation during the past few months.

The economy is heading into the final two months of 2024 in very good shape. This has manifested in solid GDP growth, low unemployment, and moderate inflation. However, the current situation is not without risk.